The latest polls show that he now has strong chances of advancing to the second round, depriving the contest of a centrist candidate who could rally voters against the far-right in the EU's second-largest economy. Mélenchon draws a significant part of his electoral strength from working-class and immigrant communities, while his critics accuse him of anti-Semitism and the "barbarization" of political discourse. Although his qualification for the second round would be a significant political achievement, most polls predict that he will be defeated by a large margin by Bardella.
Panic in the political center
The emerging picture is already causing intense concern in the French political center. "Many believe that if they have to choose between France Unbowed and the National Rally, that would be a nightmare. And I agree," said conservative Édouard Philippe, who is considered the strongest candidate of the traditional political space for the Élysée Palace. A similar warning was issued by the Minister of Justice of the government of liberal President Emmanuel Macron, Gérald Darmanin, who argued that Mélenchon is evolving into the main opponent of the far-right. "One must wear blinders not to see it," he stated characteristically.
The polls that caused a shock
Last week, two polls caused turbulence in the French political scene. The first, by Odoxa, showed Mélenchon essentially tied for second place with Philippe, behind Bardella. The second, by Toluna-Harris Interactive, demonstrated that the leader of France Unbowed could make it to the second round against the far-right, provided the centrist space appears fragmented with many candidates, including Philippe and Macron's former prime minister, Gabriel Attal. Despite the alarming signs, it does not yet appear that the risk of exclusion from the second round is acting as the necessary electric shock that will push centrist forces to rally around a single candidate. Philippe is in open confrontation with Attal, and neither shows any willingness to withdraw. "The competition with Gabriel Attal could prove fatal," estimates Sciences Po political analyst Bruno Cautrès.
The political comeback of Mélenchon
For Mélenchon, the latest polls constitute an impressive political comeback. After his aggressive campaign in the March municipal elections, many thought his political influence had significantly waned. Polls still show that the 74-year-old politician is one of France's least popular politicians. However, even his opponents recognize that his campaign since he announced his candidacy in May is particularly dynamic. On June 7, his supporters are planning a large rally in Saint-Denis, a suburb north of Paris, where France Unbowed prevailed in local elections. Stanislas Rigault, former spokesperson for Éric Zemmour's far-right party Reconquest, wrote characteristically: "It is hard not to admit that Mélenchon has understood better than anyone else how a modern presidential campaign is waged."
The clash of the extremes
The possibility of a final showdown between Mélenchon and Bardella — or even with Marine Le Pen, if she is eventually allowed to be a candidate — is a scenario that both sides are attempting to strengthen politically. Mélenchon has argued for years that in the end, the fight will be "us against them," meaning the Left against the far-right, as traditional center-right and center-left parties weaken. On the other hand, officials of the National Rally argue that Bardella takes it for granted that he will face Mélenchon or another leftist candidate in the second round. In France, the president is elected through a two-round electoral process, with the top two candidates from the first round facing off in the final round.
Alarm on the center-left
The rise of Mélenchon has caused particular concern among moderate leftists, as they believe he has no realistic chance of defeating the far-right. Polls give Bardella percentages above 70% in a second-round matchup with Mélenchon, while the Toluna-Harris Interactive poll recorded a 68% share for the leader of the National Rally. "Mélenchon wants to be the king of a graveyard of the Left," stated a Socialist Party official anonymously.
Dissolution in the political center
At the same time, the center-left appears more fragmented than ever. Last month, the Socialist Party was close to splitting when a third of its leadership group departed due to the conflict between party president Olivier Faure and his ally Boris Vallaud. MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, considered one of the center-left's strongest candidates, recently attempted to revitalize his candidacy through the presentation of a new book and a series of interviews. However, his image was negatively affected both by doubts regarding his campaign skills and by the leak of an internal document that allegedly suggested avoiding targeting poorer voters.
Pressure on the center-right as well
The concerns are not limited to the Left. In the 2022 presidential election, Mélenchon had garnered almost 22% in the first round. A similar percentage could prove sufficient for his advancement to the second round in 2027. In the latest Odoxa poll, Bardella garnered 32%, Philippe 17%, and Mélenchon 16%. Philippe's main problem is that he is forced to fight on many fronts, against both the head of Les Républicains, Bruno Retailleau, and the highly active Gabriel Attal, who officially announced his presidential candidacy. According to a close associate of Macron, "things are complicated in the political center because its leaders are too busy attacking each other."
Time is pressing
Supporters of both Attal and Philippe estimate that there will eventually be an agreement and they will support a joint candidate. However, there are signs that negotiations will not be easy. In a press briefing on Thursday, an advisor to Attal left open the possibility that the former prime minister might remain in the race until the end, provided the threat of Mélenchon is contained. "That would change the data," he noted. With less than a year remaining until the presidential election, there is still time to bridge the differences. However, for the moment, the far-Right and the far-Left appear to be constantly strengthening their influence in the battle for the Élysée Palace.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών